Double jeopardy

Double jeopardy is the empirical law that small brands are punished twice: they have fewer buyers, and those buyers are also slightly less loyal. Big brands therefore have not only more customers but marginally more loyal ones as well. The pattern has been replicated across dozens of categories and countries and follows mathematically from how buying is distributed across brands. The practical consequence is large: loyalty is mostly an outcome of market share, not an independent dial to turn. A brand that wants to grow must primarily recruit more buyers rather than try to make existing customers more loyal.

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